With nearly 90% of the ballots counted, Rodigo Duterte is poised to become the next President of the Philippines. This is reported by Trefor Moss in the Wall Street Journal in an article entitled “Crime-Busting Mayor Set to Lead Philippines.” (Tuesday, May 10, 2016, A 10)
“During the campaign President elect Duterte pledged to kill criminals and to end crime and corruption within six months, punctuating his speeches with obscene asides about rape and masculinity…In Davao, where he has been mayor since the 1980s, Mr. Duterte is widely credited with restoring law and order by allowing vigilantes to kill over 1000 suspected street criminals. He now promises to take the same approach nationwide. Tens of thousands of people will die during this purge, he has said. ‘Forget the laws on human rights,’ he told supporters over the weekend…But with every sound bite Mr. Duterte’s ratings jumped.” Mr. Moss goes on to report that his “anti-establishment stance and his lack of political correctness made him appealing to the ordinary voter.
Some are comparing some of the appeal of President-elect Duterte to the appeal of Donald Trump. As we in the United States know, the more Mr. Trumps insults and offers quick, easy solutions the more he appeals to a significant segment of the population.
As was true for other historical figures, there is a certain appeal to the person or organization who promises quick solutions and who appeals to those who have felt left out, taken advantage of or otherwise discounted.
Earlier this morning I was listening to a Ted Talk by professor, Dr. Philip Zimbardo. His talk is entitled, “The psychology of time.” (June 2009)
He talks about the example of an experiment with 4-year-olds in which the experimenter offers the 4-year-olds one marshmallow now or two if they wait until the experimenter comes back. Two-thirds of the children choose to take the one marshmallow now. Fourteen years later an associate of his goes back to try to discover what was different about these kids who elected to wait for the two marshmallows. He discovered:
“The kids who resisted scored 250 points higher on the SAT. That's enormous. That's like a whole set of different IQ points. They didn't get in as much trouble. They were better students. They were self-confident and determined. And the key for me today, the key for you, is, they were future-focused rather than present-focused.”
Dr. Zimbardo goes on to talk about the “paradox of time perspective” which he argues “is something that influences every decision you make…”
He states:
“So, time paradox, I want to argue, the paradox of time perspective, is something that influences every decision you make, you're totally unaware of. Namely, the extent to which you have one of these biased time perspectives. Well there is actually six of them. There are two ways to be present-oriented. There are two ways to be past-oriented, two ways to be future-oriented. You can focus on past-positive, or past-negative. You can be present-hedonistic, namely you focus on the joys of life, or present-fatalist -- it doesn't matter, your life is controlled. You can be future-oriented, setting goals. Or you can be transcendental future: namely, life begins after death. Developing the mental flexibility to shift time perspectives fluidly depending on the demands of the situation, that's what you've got to learn to do.
So what is time perspective? That's what I'm going to talk about today. Time perspective is the study of how individuals, all of us, divide the flow of your human experience into time zones or time categories. And you do it automatically and non-consciously….
Any time perspective in excess has more negatives than positives. What do futures sacrifice for success? They sacrifice family time. They sacrifice friend time. They sacrifice fun time. They sacrifice personal indulgence. They sacrifice hobbies. And they sacrifice sleep. So it affects their health. And they live for work, achievement and control. I'm sure that resonates with some of the TEDsters.”
The paradox is that the goal is to be present to the here and now while also considering future possibilities. Certainly, labeling certain people as criminals and then allowing them to be killed by vigilante groups restores a sense of order and may temporarily reduce criminal activity. Those in the favored group(s) who continue to live will possibly feel safer and will, in fact be safer temporarily. Tomorrow, however, someone may decide that they are the criminals and they are killed off or at the very least their freedoms diminished.
Mr. Trump has discounted women, immigrants, people/nations to whom we, the United States, owe money, and many other groups and nations. Yet, at times he promises to bring people together. What people? The group who may later be found is labeled as the problem.
I am reminded of the words of Pastor Martin Niemöller during the reign of the Nazis’:
First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”
(Wikipedia – This is the version of the speech used by the United States Holocaust Museum.)
The temptation might be to judge those who voted for Mr. Duterte or to judge those who are supporting candidates such as Mr. Trump - to dismiss them as less intelligent, less well behaved and less able to think in terms of the future citing the results of studies such as the one Dr. Zimbardo quotes. That would, I think, be a grave mistake. We need to appreciate the psychology and paradox of time perspective. If we simply judge those who are so present oriented that they will settle for the one marshmallow now we will end up validating the logic which leads them to settle for the one marshmallow of easy solutions and immediate gratification. I fear what is happening in the presidential race in the United States may be what happened in the Philippines: a self-righteous dismissal of those with whom we disagree. We are all striving to reach a balance of present oriented with an awareness that there is also a future about which we need to be concerned. The person who is present-future oriented is able to focus on the positives of the present while appreciating the benefits of postponing some rewards. Those who feel discounted in the present; those who feel as if their happiness has been sacrificed for the one percent or for the immigrant or whoever, need to know that their needs are valid and important. We need to offer a plan which both attends to their needs and protects the needs and rights of others. We can look in the mirror and see that whether it is our labeling of “them” or their labeling us as “them” the long term result is the same.
The self-righteousness of one is not more moral than the self-righteousness of another.
It is not clear to me why a relatively small percentage of those 4-year-olds were able to wait for the two marshmallows. Nor is it clear to me if the habit of waiting led to better study habits which led to higher achievement or whether the higher intelligence (as we currently measure) led to ability to wait. By the time children are 4-years-old they have been exposed to a variety of stimulations and have learned approaches to life.
We do know that treating people as less then – discounting their feelings, thoughts and needs – will lead to grave psychological consequences. From my work with addicts and others I strongly suspect that these psychological consequences might lead one to choose one marshmallow rather than waiting for the two. Once that habit is established it is difficult to change – difficult but not impossible.
Written May 10, 2016